Katanga, The electoral powder keg

While the 2023 elections unfolded without the major electoral violence seen in 2006, 2011, and 2018, the socio-political tensions exacerbated by these elections place Katanga on the verge of potential instability during President Félix Tshisekedi’s second term.

«Katanga, la poudrière électorale» (Katanga, the Electoral Powder Keg) is the first in a series of three analyses on electoral violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study delves into the complex dynamics of the former province of Katanga, one of the country’s richest mining regions. It identifies several elements that could fuel opposition to the regime, potentially leading to violence. These elements include the use of identity-based and populist rhetoric during the elections, historical tensions between Katangans and Kasaians, Katanga’s history of secession threats, and the presence of armed militias in the northern provinces of Haut-Lomami and Tanganyika.

Efforts to contain tensions and prevent escalation of violence during the electoral process were multifaceted. On one hand, the government took proactive measurs, such as strengthening the military presence in high-risk areas (e.g., Lubumbashi and Kolwezi) and restructuring the command of the 22nd military region. On the other hand, the absence of significant tensions was also due to the opposition’s inherent weaknesses, particularly its limited capacity for mobilization.

The analysis notes that periods likely to exacerbate tensions in Katanga could align with critical political events, such as the election of provincial governors, the formation of the National Assembly’s permanent bureau, the formation of the national government, and appointments within state-owned enterprises.

Another significant risk factor is the opportunism of armed militias. Although these groups often lack clear political objectives, they can be manipulated by political actors. Support from political figures could enhance their operational capacity and escalate violence beyond their current spheres of influence.

Lastly, the analysis underscores the volatile role of political party members, who frequently contest control over the region’s economic and political zones, sometimes resulting in violent confrontations. Their tendency to act autonomously, often disregarding their leadership’s directives, renders them particularly unpredictable.

Download the full note in French